Kuala lumpur: Existing oilfields could supply up to one trillion barrels of crude through 2050 without major new discoveries, according to analysis by energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie.
According to BERNAMA News Agency, Wood Mackenzie Senior Vice President of Energy Research, Andrew Latham, stated that global liquids demand under the firm's base-case Energy Transition Outlook scenario is estimated at just under one trillion barrels. He highlighted that without upgrades to current development plans, today's producing fields are set to fall short by almost 300 billion barrels, with this deficit potentially rising by another 50 billion barrels under a delayed transition scenario.
The consultancy's new Synoptic artificial intelligence (AI)-powered Analogues feature, which uses machine learning to assess oilfield performance, indicates that existing fields have significant recovery potential. Initial analysis suggests that applying established best practices could yield an additional 470 billion to over one trillion barrels.
National oil companies (NOCs) control nearly 70 per cent of this potential, operating fields with over 320 billion barrels of potential under top-quartile recovery and 700 billion barrels on a best-in-class basis. Countries with the largest recovery potential include Iran, Venezuela, Iraq, and Russia. In contrast, major international oil companies hold just six per cent of global upside potential, reflecting already strong recovery performance in their fields.
Latham noted that the future of oil supply will be increasingly onshore and NOC-operated. The analysis also reveals a mismatch between resources and expertise, with NOCs achieving recovery factors slightly below the industry average of 29 per cent, despite operating fields with potential for 39 per cent. This gap presents opportunities for partnerships with international oil companies and service providers.
The upside potential is concentrated in onshore and shallow offshore fields, which account for 94 per cent of best-in-class opportunities. Deepwater fields, typically operated by financially strong firms, offer less than six per cent of remaining upside. Wood Mackenzie emphasized that exploration will remain important but cannot close the supply gap. Since the 1980s, most new reserves have come from revisions to existing fields rather than new discoveries.
The consultancy also noted that nearly two trillion barrels remain in undeveloped greenfield resources, though only 10 per cent are considered commercially viable. Most are likely to remain stranded due to economic and technical challenges. Latham concluded that improved recovery factors will be essential to meeting future demand, as new discoveries alone will not offset the natural decline of supply. He emphasized that AI-driven analysis represents a significant advancement in understanding oilfield potential compared to traditional analogue methods.