Kuala lumpur: Apex Securities Bhd has raised its 2026 export forecast for Malaysia to 26.2 per cent from 16.3 per cent, underpinned by robust export growth in the first seven months of the year. In a note today, the securities firm said this is consistent with its positive gross domestic product (GDP) growth outlook of 5.0 per cent this year.

According to BERNAMA News Agency, Apex Securities expects the electric and electronic sector to remain resilient and drive overall export momentum in the second half of 2026 (2H 2026). This growth is anticipated due to structural developments in artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, and other related industrial segments, which are supporting a steady order pipeline over the medium term.

Additionally, the firm is optimistic about commodity exports in 2H 2026. Elevated crude oil prices and potential trade diversions due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are expected to bolster Malaysia's oil and gas exports. Meanwhile, increased demand for B50 biodiesel from Indonesia is likely to sustain palm oil demand. The anticipated intensification of El Ni±o, with hotter and drier weather conditions between October and December, should further support higher palm oil prices. As of August 19, 2026, palm oil prices have risen 16.8 per cent to RM4,596 per metric tonne since the start of the year.

Despite these positive projections, Apex Securities cautions that exports may encounter increasing challenges towards the year-end. These challenges include the unwinding of front-loaded demand from earlier stockpiling activities, coupled with an unfavorable high base from the corresponding period last year. Other potential risks include a steep re-escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which could negatively impact global demand, as well as uncertainties surrounding United States (US) trade policy.

The note also highlights Malaysia's exposure to higher tariffs, as the US Section 301 investigation into excess capacity remains ongoing.