Johor: A high voter turnout in the 16th Johor state election this Saturday is seen as potentially benefiting candidates from the Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition, particularly in urban and semi-urban constituencies with large numbers of outstation, young, and fence-sitting voters.
According to BERNAMA News Agency, political analyst Associate Professor Dr. Mazlan Ali mentioned that political stability at the federal level, improving economic indicators, and government assistance to the people, including financial initiatives and subsidies, could encourage PH supporters to return home to vote. He stated that voters who have benefited from the government's stability and the current economic conditions are likely to want to ensure the continuity of PH's administration, both at the federal level and in Johor.
Mazlan elaborated that the 2022 Johor state election demonstrated how low voter turnout significantly affected PH's performance, as many outstation voters did not return home to cast their ballots due to the COVID-19 pandemic. He noted that voter turnout in the 2022 election was just over 50 per cent, which gave an advantage to Barisan Nasional (BN), as they have a strong local support base and a large pool of core supporters in the state.
He remarked that a different trend emerged during the 15th General Election (GE15), held later that same year, when voter turnout rose to about 75 per cent, allowing PH to win 14 parliamentary seats in Johor. Mazlan added that PH's popular vote also increased significantly, from about 350,000 votes in the 2022 Johor state election to 830,000 votes in GE15, indicating that if translated into the state assembly context, it is logical to expect PH to win more seats.
He highlighted that this year's Johor state election is being held under different circumstances, with pandemic-related restrictions no longer in place and signs that outstation voters are more inclined to return home to cast their ballots. Urban and semi-urban constituencies are expected to be key battlegrounds for PH, as voters in these areas are generally more responsive to current issues, governance performance, economic policies, and political offerings centred on social justice.
Mazlan emphasized that most PH supporters are outstation voters, fence-sitters, young people, the educated, and those who are highly mobile and active on social media. He explained that they are attracted to PH's narrative, which emphasizes justice and fairness for the people, differentiating them from voters who are more influenced by racial and religious sentiments.
He concluded by noting that the wave of outstation voters could be a deciding factor, especially in urban and semi-urban constituencies. If they return in large numbers, they could shift the balance of support in several key seats. Mazlan stated that PH's main challenge in the final days of campaigning is to ensure its supporters actually turn out to vote, particularly those living outside Johor who remain registered voters in the state.