Kuala lumpur: CIMB Securities Sdn Bhd anticipates an 11.9% year-on-year increase in Malayan Banking Bhd's (Maybank) core net profit for the fourth quarter of 2025. This growth is expected to be driven by a more favorable outlook for non-interest income (NOII).
According to BERNAMA News Agency, the investment bank noted that the sequential net-interest margin (NIM) recovery may surpass expectations. The improvement in domestic system liquidity during 4Q 2025, fueled by increased foreign direct inflows, portfolio inflows into bonds/sukuks, and strong corporate current account savings account (CASA) growth, suggests a shift towards a more supportive liquidity environment.
CIMB Securities highlighted that this change in liquidity conditions should benefit Maybank, given its significant exposure to regional flows. Additionally, stronger foreign currency conversion and hedging activities, indicated by elevated FX spot and swap turnover, suggest robust flow income. The increased foreign purchasing of Malaysian Government Bonds could enhance Maybank's realized investment gains.
Maybank is set to announce its 4Q 2025 results this Thursday. CIMB Securities remarked that the combination of a stronger ringgit and improved domestic liquidity has reduced domestic funding cost pressures. These factors are favorable for Maybank's NIM, which is expected to expand by approximately four to five basis points quarter-on-quarter in 4Q 2025 to reach 2.06%. However, for the full year, FY25 NIM might slightly decline to 2.03%.
Furthermore, the investment bank has revised its earnings forecasts for Maybank for FY25/26/27, projecting increases of 2.6%, 6.9%, and 5.3%, respectively. This adjustment accounts for 2.6-3.4% NOII growth due to increased contributions from global markets income (FX, derivatives, and investment gains) and a lower net credit charge (NCC).
CIMB Securities has reaffirmed its 'buy' rating on Maybank, with an increased target price (TP) of RM13.30. The higher TP reflects improved earnings visibility in Maybank's core operations, with a stable NIM supported by easing funding cost pressure and NCC maintained at a lower 19 basis points due to disciplined asset quality management.
Additionally, technology is anticipated to serve as a new structural growth enabler for Maybank, with the RM10 billion ROAR30 investment program expected to enhance cost discipline and operational efficiency through cloud-native architecture and a next-generation workforce. Coupled with a dividend yield of 5.6%, total returns for Maybank amount to 11.6%, supporting CIMB Securities' 'buy' rating on the stock.