Kuala lumpur: MBSB Investment Bank Bhd anticipates that the benchmark prices for Brent crude oil and crude palm oil (CPO) will remain above their current support levels, with potential to test resistance at US$114 per barrel and RM4,890 per tonne respectively in the near future.
According to BERNAMA News Agency, the outlook is primarily influenced by the United States military's planned blockade of Iranian ports commencing on April 13. The bank highlighted that this blockade, along with any further escalation, is likely to cause market disruptions. As a strategic response, MBSB Investment Bank recommends taking long positions in crude oil and other commodity-related stocks, underpinned by fundamental upside.
RHB Investment Bank Bhd has also weighed in, noting that in a scenario where the conflict persists or escalates, oil prices could experience a sharp increase, potentially reaching between US$140 and US$150 per barrel. The severity and duration of supply disruptions will play a key role in determining this price surge.
RHB Investment Bank Bhd further commented that a return to pre-conflict oil prices is not expected in the immediate future. Factors such as restart lags, logistical frictions, and lingering risk premiums are anticipated to keep prices elevated in the short term. However, as supply chains stabilize, RHB expects prices to eventually settle around the mid-US$80 per barrel level before gradually declining towards their medium-term assumptions. Consequently, RHB has raised its average Brent crude oil forecast for 2026 to US$82.50 per barrel, up from a previous forecast of US$62, and has introduced a 2027 forecast of US$72 per barrel.
Year to date, Brent crude oil has averaged approximately US$80.50 per barrel, with the first quarter of 2026 averaging US$77.80 per barrel, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Meanwhile, Hong Leong Investment Bank Bhd has provided its perspective, stating that the duration of the conflict remains uncertain, but it expects Brent prices to remain elevated for roughly five months. This projection is based on historical patterns observed following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. Consequently, Hong Leong Investment Bank has revised its Brent assumptions for 2026 and 2027 to US$90 per barrel and US$75 per barrel, up from previous estimates of US$70 and US$65 respectively.