Kuala lumpur: MBSB Investment Bank Bhd has announced an upward revision of Malaysia's export growth forecast for 2026, setting it at 8.8 percent, a significant increase from last year's 4.5 percent. Import growth is also expected to rise to 7.5 percent this year, compared to an earlier projection of 5.0 percent.

According to BERNAMA News Agency, the investment bank attributes these upward revisions to price-driven gains, which are supported by elevated commodity prices. The bank highlighted that the surge in re-exports has significantly contributed to the upgrade in export forecasts. Additionally, the global technology upcycles and the expanding infrastructure for artificial intelligence are expected to boost the demand for electrical and electronics (E and E) products. MBSB Investment also anticipates a potential increase in E and E shipments due to the US phased tariffs on semiconductor products.

Earlier reports from the Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry indicated that Malaysia's trade reached a record RM336.73 billion in April 2026, marking a 28.6 percent year-on-year increase, largely driven by robust exports of E and E products. However, the bank noted that Malaysia's export trajectory remains susceptible to external challenges, such as escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia and US trade protectionism.

Additionally, MBSB Investment pointed out potential risks stemming from scrutiny over forced labor allegations and structural excess capacity in manufacturing, which could provoke retaliatory measures. The looming semiconductor-specific tariffs also pose a threat to the nation's industrial outlook. On the domestic front, the bank expects that sustained consumer and business spending will continue to support import growth.