Kuala lumpur: Research houses anticipate Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) will maintain the overnight policy rate (OPR) at 2.75 per cent during its final Monetary Policy Committee meeting in November. This follows the recent decision to keep the rate unchanged.

According to BERNAMA News Agency, Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) has interpreted this subtle shift in tone as an indication that an eventual recalibration is possible, though not immediately expected. With the current inflation environment still considered manageable, HLIB predicts that the central bank will retain its policy space and adopt a wait-and-see approach. The bank anticipates a policy normalization back to 3.00 per cent but forecasts that this 25 basis points hike will likely only occur in 2027.

CIMB Investment Bank Bhd shares a similar outlook, highlighting a potential 25 bps hike to 3.00 per cent in the OPR during the first half of 2027. This expectation hinges on the continuation of the current growth momentum into the second half of 2026 and 2027, in addition to rising inflation signs stemming from broad-based demand pressures. The research bank emphasized its focus on inflation monitoring, which could bolster the case for policy normalization.

Meanwhile, RHB Investment Bank Bhd has noted the possibility of a 25 bps rate hike in the coming months if inflation proves to be higher and more persistent than initially expected. The bank acknowledges that resilient economic fundamentals and manageable inflationary pressures support a stable policy stance, with no immediate need for adjustments. However, it cautions that ongoing geopolitical tensions and unexpected disruptions in oil supply among major oil-producing nations could exert upward pressure on global energy prices.