Kuala Lumpur: The Southwest Monsoon (MBD), which commenced on May 10 and is anticipated to continue until September, is unlikely to result in extreme dry weather conditions. This is due to the current El Ni±o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern remaining in a neutral phase, according to National Disaster Management Agency (NADMA) director-general Datuk Abdul Halim Hamzah. He stated that the impact of droughts typically associated with MBD is expected to be less severe this year compared to the previous year.
According to BERNAMA News Agency, Datuk Abdul Halim explained that although MBD usually brings drier weather to Peninsular Malaysia, the neutral ENSO status means severe droughts, often linked with El Ni±o, are less likely to occur. He noted that the neutral phase of ENSO suggests a more 'normal' monsoon without the extreme effects of El Ni±o or La Ni±a, anticipated to continue until October.
ENSO is a climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean that oscillates between warmer (El Ni±o), cooler (La Ni±a), and neutral phases, significantly impacting global weather, including monsoon seasons in Malaysia. However, Abdul Halim cautioned that hot weather conditions could still pose health risks, lead to water supply shortages, forest and bushfires, and haze. If prolonged, these conditions may also affect agricultural yields.
Abdul Halim outlined the key characteristics of MBD, which include low rainfall over Peninsular Malaysia and Sarawak, more dry days across most states, and the formation of squall lines-clusters of active thunderstorm clouds forming over the sea and moving inland-typically occurring in the mornings along the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia and western Sabah. He added that local and transboundary haze incidents might occur if forest fires are not controlled.
He assured that NADMA, along with the Fire and Rescue Department (JBPM), Department of Irrigation and Drainage, Department of Environment (DOE), and the Malaysian Meteorological Department (MET Malaysia), is fully prepared in terms of logistics and manpower to handle the impacts of the Southwest Monsoon. On water resource management and hydrological drought, Abdul Halim stated that forecasts related to drought, including dam storage and river flow rates, indicate that most major dams and river water remain at normal levels, although the Malut Dam in Kedah is at alert status with a storage level of 37.6 percent as of May 27.
Abdul Halim mentioned that a coordination meeting on cloud seeding operations in Kedah, specifically for the Bukit Malut Dam issue, is scheduled as a proactive measure to prevent the dam from drying out. He noted that JBPM has been appointed as the coordinating agency to handle complaints related to open burning, aiming to avoid overlapping actions and ensure swift and accurate responses. He highlighted that in the first five months of this year, JBPM responded to 3,791 open burning cases, with the highest numbers recorded in five states: Kedah, Johor, Terengganu, Selangor, and Perak.
Abdul Halim reported that between Jan 1 and May 19, DOE identified 125 hotspots across Malaysia, investigated 2,391 open burning cases, issued 34 compounds, and brought 16 cases to court. Meanwhile, MET Malaysia's deputy director-general of operations, Ambun Dindang, stated that the highest temperatures, ranging from 36 to 37 degrees Celsius, are expected in July and August, with the northern region of Peninsular Malaysia and inland areas likely to experience hotter weather compared to other regions.
Established in 2015, NADMA is tasked with planning, coordinating, and implementing policies and strategies related to disaster preparedness, response, and recovery. The agency serves as the country's central reference point for managing various types of disasters, including floods, haze, earthquakes, and pandemics, through close collaboration with multiple government agencies, local authorities, non-governmental organizations, and local communities.