Kuala lumpur: The likelihood of El Nino reaching the 'very strong' or 'Super El Nino' category between October and December 2026 has risen to more than 90 percent, according to Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia) director-general Dr. Mohd Hisham Mohd Anip.
According to BERNAMA News Agency, Dr. Mohd Hisham stated that the forecast is based on a significant upward trend in the Relative Oceanic Ni±o Index (RONI) since the year's middle, with recent weekly observations showing sea surface temperatures more than 1.8 degrees Celsius above the climatological average. This indicates that El Nino is continuing to strengthen and is expected to peak towards the end of 2026.
Dr. Mohd Hisham mentioned that current global climate patterns suggest the 2026-2027 El Nino could rank among the most extreme events ever recorded, potentially exceeding or matching the very strong El Nino episodes of 1997-1998 and 2015-2016. The highest temperature during the 1997-1998 episode was 40.1 degrees Celsius at Chuping Meteorological Station in Perlis, with 39.3 degrees Celsius recorded during the 2015-2016 episode at Batu Embun Meteorological Station in Jerantut, Pahang.
He explained that past Super El Nino episodes showed the country experiencing hotter and drier conditions, with a significant reduction in rainfall towards the end of the Northeast Monsoon and during the inter-monsoon period from February to May. Based on previous patterns and recent global warming effects, a more pronounced temperature increase is expected from February to May next year.
Dr. Mohd Hisham added that the strong El Nino could occur alongside a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which may further reduce rainfall across the region. El Nino reduces moisture supply from the Pacific Ocean, while a positive IOD reduces moisture supply from the Indian Ocean, increasing the likelihood of hotter and drier conditions across southern ASEAN, including Malaysia.
He assured that MetMalaysia would continue to monitor developments involving both phenomena, as well as weather conditions and regional forest fire risks. During a positive IOD phase, cooler sea surface temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean near Indonesia typically reduce cloud formation and rainfall over Indonesia and parts of Southeast Asia.