Kuala lumpur: Brent crude oil prices have remained above US$100 per barrel today amid the escalating United States-Iran conflict, reigniting fears over global energy supplies. Global benchmark Brent crude eased 0.63 percent to US$100.10 per barrel at 9.43 am following consecutive US military strikes against Iran. Higher oil prices typically lead to petrol and diesel becoming more expensive.
According to BERNAMA News Agency, SPI Asset Management managing partner Stephen Innes has indicated that the escalation largely rests with Iran now. If Tehran or its Houthi proxies continue attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz or the Red Sea, the US is likely to retaliate, pushing the current tit-for-tat exchange into a far more dangerous phase. On Wednesday, oil prices spiked after Houthi militia in Yemen attacked oil tankers in the Red Sea, threatening a key export route that Saudi Arabia has used to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
Innes added that the risk would rise considerably if the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were to target energy infrastructure in the neighboring countries. Such actions could broaden the conflict and deepen existing supply disruptions at a time when global inventory buffers are already under considerable strain. "As we have seen in the past, this could change quickly if olive branch diplomacy starts to appear again, but right now that is not the market base case over the short term, so yes, oil could remain elevated over a two-week horizon," Innes commented. He anticipates Brent prices to range between US$95 and US$105 over the short term, but warns that sustained escalation could push prices up to US$120, a level projected to cause demand destruction.
Brent crude is up roughly 65.5 percent year-to-date, based on Thursday's US$100.69 close versus the December 31, 2025, settlement of US$60.85. Oil prices had been stabilizing recently following a temporary US-Iran ceasefire. However, early today, the US launched its 13th consecutive night of strikes against Iran amid reports that Iranian officials had rejected a US ceasefire proposal carried to Tehran by the leader of Iraq.
Rystad Energy vice president for commodity markets (oil) Janiv Shah noted that the direction of prices will ultimately depend on three factors: whether crude flows into Asia can be maintained, whether refiners can adapt to a changing mix of crude grades, and how geopolitical developments unfold. "The probability of higher prices increases as the conflict escalates, but the magnitude of that increase will depend on how these physical market dynamics play out," Shah said in a note today.
Janiv highlighted the critical role of Saudi exports from the Yanbu port, a major Saudi Arabian energy and shipping hub on the Red Sea coast. Approximately 4 million barrels per day (bpd) exit the terminal, with about 2.5 million bpd continuing south through Bab el-Mandeb. He noted that this assumes the route stays operational, although current threats and recent attacks keep freight and insurance costs elevated. If the current market flow dynamics persist or worsen, prices are likely to rise in the coming weeks due to the global crude and liquids balance deficit. "Strategic petroleum release can cap spikes but cannot correct the crude slate mismatch. Asian refineries short of sour feedstock may cut runs, even when light sweet barrels are available, preventing high margins from generating a full supply response and keeping diesel and jet cracks strong," Janiv explained.