Johor: Chinese voters in Johor are expected to weigh the federal government's performance, political stability, and national issues as they head to the Johor state election this Saturday.
According to BERNAMA News Agency, Assistant Professor at the International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM), Dr. Lau Zhe Wei, highlighted that Pakatan Harapan (PH), unlike during the 2022 Johor election, now bears the burden of federal governance. This shift makes PH's performance in Putrajaya crucial for voters, including the Chinese community. Dr. Lau pointed out that in 2022, PH did not hold federal power, which allowed them to gain sympathy and empathy votes. However, with PH now part of the federal government, national-level issues could influence state sentiments.
Dr. Lau emphasized the challenge PH faces in persuading outstation Johoreans, particularly those working in Singapore and Kuala Lumpur, to return and vote. He noted that based on the 2022 Johor election results, the marginal seats, such as those held by DAP with narrow victories, could be at risk if voter turnout mirrors that of the 2022 state election instead of the higher turnout seen in the 2022 general election. The emergence of Parti Bersama Malaysia (Bersama) could also split votes traditionally cast for PH, although its electoral strength remains untested.
Developments beyond Johor, including national governance and human rights issues, are likely to influence urban Chinese voters, who tend to consider broader issues. Dr. Lau noted that urban voters, a primary support group for PH, often look beyond local issues, and national controversies could impact their voting decisions.
Senior research officer at Merdeka Center, Ted Lee, noted that despite frustrations with some of the MADANI government's policies, many Chinese voters are cautious about abandoning PH due to broader political considerations. He highlighted concerns about endorsing cooperation between BN and PAS and the potential perception of supporting a royal pardon for former Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak, which might deter voters from switching allegiance to BN.
Lee further explained that many urban Chinese voters have benefited from infrastructure projects like the Johor Bahru-Singapore Rapid Transit System (RTS) Link but continue to struggle with rising living costs. Voter concerns about political and economic stability may influence their decisions, with Johor voters generally valuing stability highly.
Turnout among outstation Johoreans is expected to be lower than during the 2022 general election, as parliamentary elections tend to create a stronger sense of urgency than state polls. The Chinese community comprises about 30 to 36 percent of Johor's electorate, forming the largest voting bloc in 12 to 14 constituencies, mainly in urban and semi-urban areas such as Johor Bahru, Iskandar Puteri, Batu Pahat, Kluang, Muar, and Segamat. In the 2022 Johor state election, DAP won 10 seats, while MCA captured four Chinese-majority seats, all previously held by DAP.