Gold Futures Decline as Fed Rate Cut Expectations Diminish

Kuala lumpur: Gold futures on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives concluded the trading session lower as investors responded to a diminished likelihood of a December Federal Reserve rate cut, now estimated at around 40 per cent.

According to BERNAMA News Agency, SPI Asset Management managing partner Stephen Innes noted that interest rate futures indicate a significant drop in the probability of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve, decreasing from 60 per cent to approximately 40 per cent within a few sessions. Innes explained that when markets shift away from risk due to the pricing out of policy easing, gold often suffers as a consequence, leading to its current lower trading position.

Innes highlighted that although the structural demand for gold, driven by factors such as central-bank purchases, fiscal concerns, and strong year-to-date performance, remains intact, traders are currently reducing duration-sensitive exposures, affecting gold in the broader market downturn. He emphasized that this particular risk-off environment is influenced by rate repricing rather than fear, which is why gold prices are subdued despite general market unease.

Contract details further illustrate the decline, with the spot month November 2025 contract dropping to US$4,039.50 per troy ounce from US$4,088.50. Similarly, the December 2025 and January 2026 contracts decreased to US$4,056.70 and US$4,074.70 per troy ounce, respectively. February, April, and June 2026 contracts also fell to US$4,090.20 per troy ounce, down from US$4,139.80.

The trading volume increased to 31 lots from 13 lots the previous day, with open interest rising to 68 contracts from 48. Physical gold was valued at US$4,072.50 per troy ounce, based on the London Bullion Market Association's afternoon fix on November 17, 2025.