Kuala lumpur: Investment banks remained positive on Malaysia's economic growth outlook for 2026, forecasting gross domestic product (GDP) growth of between 4.8 and 5.4 per cent. RHB Investment Bank Bhd (RHB IB) has maintained its 2026 GDP growth projection at 5.4 per cent, supported by resilient domestic demand and sustained strength in electrical and electronics (EandE) exports.
According to BERNAMA News Agency, RHB IB noted that the robust growth in the first half of 2026, which stood at 5.8 per cent, alongside a stronger-than-expected 6.0 per cent growth in the second quarter, reinforces their positive outlook. The bank highlighted the necessity of remaining vigilant to external risks such as geopolitical uncertainties and tariff policies but emphasized Malaysia's strong positioning to handle these challenges. This confidence is attributed to Malaysia's diversified economic structure and its integration into regional and global supply chains, as well as ongoing efforts to diversify export markets and expand product offerings.
Similarly, MBSB Investment Bank Bhd (MBSB IB) adjusted its GDP growth projection for 2026 upwards to 5.1 per cent, up from a previous 4.5 per cent, largely driven by robust growth in the first half of the year. The bank attributed this stronger-than-expected growth to an upswing in external trade, boosted by strong demand for EandE and petroleum products. MBSB IB also projected that the rise in domestic demand would continue to underpin Malaysia's sustainable economic growth, supported by increased tourism activity and higher income levels, with inflation remaining generally under control.
Meanwhile, CIMB Investment Bank Bhd (CIMB IB) has kept its GDP forecast at 4.8 per cent for 2026, supported primarily by net exports and a mining rebound due to base effects, rather than domestic demand, which showed a slight decrease to 5.1 per cent from 5.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2026. CIMB IB anticipates growth to moderate in the second half of 2026 due to high base effects from the second half of 2025, compounded by the ongoing West Asia conflict impacting domestic sentiment and activity.
Regarding monetary policy, both RHB IB and CIMB IB have maintained their stance for the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) to remain unchanged at 2.75 per cent. RHB IB added that future monetary policy decisions would likely be data-dependent, focusing on economic growth prospects and underlying inflation momentum.