Kuala lumpur: Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) has projected Malaysia's current account surplus to widen to 1.5-2.5 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026, according to CIMB Treasury and Market Research.
According to BERNAMA News Agency, the research firm noted that this growth potential is supported by an anticipated increase in the goods surplus, projected at RM128.1 billion in 2026, up from RM110.9 billion in 2025. Additionally, a larger services surplus of RM5 billion is expected, compared to RM1.2 billion in 2025, largely benefiting from tourist arrivals during Visit Malaysia Year 2026 and the progressive operationalisation of data centre facilities.
However, CIMB highlighted that the growth might be partly offset by a wider primary income deficit projected at -RM74.2 billion, compared to -RM69.5 billion in 2025. This is attributed to sustained profit repatriation by multinational companies operating in Malaysia. Additionally, a larger secondary income deficit of -RM13.2 billion, up from -RM10.8 billion in 2025, is expected, driven by outward remittances by foreign workers.
CIMB also pointed out that the ongoing West Asia conflict introduces two-sided risks to this outlook, primarily due to potential prolonged disruptions to global shipping lanes and energy infrastructure. These factors could impact external demand and tourism activity, although Malaysia's position as a net energy exporter, driven by liquified natural gas (LNG) surpluses, provides a partial hedge against elevated global energy prices.
Meanwhile, Hong Leong Investment Bank Bhd (HLIB) expects the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to adopt a wait-and-see stance, maintaining the overnight policy rate (OPR) steady at 2.75 percent in 2026. This expectation aligns with BNM's outlook of sustained growth and moderate inflation.
HLIB further mentioned that in the near term, Malaysia's potential output will continue to be supported by capital accumulation and productivity gains, amid higher investments in information and communication technology (ICT) and electrical and electronics (E and E) sectors.