Riyadh: TOURISE, in collaboration with Oxford Economics, has released a new report on tourism resilience in an era of permanent disruption, analysing 85 major crises over two decades. The report shows that in a world defined by continuous shocks, destinations that act before disruption hits recover up to 1.5 times faster than those that wait.

According to BERNAMA News Agency, the report highlights that in a world that does not reset between crises, disruption is a constant feature of the global tourism landscape. The real test for destinations is how they prepare for volatility, protect traveller confidence, and maintain continuity ahead of such events, as stated by Saudi Arabia Tourism Minister and TOURISE Chairman, Ahmed Al-Khateeb.

Using the current Middle East crisis as a lens, where Gulf hubs carry roughly 14 per cent of global transit traffic, the report provides investors and policymakers with practical guidance for navigating a system in which disruption is now the norm. It models three pathways for the current crisis, predicting global travel to grow about six per cent in 2026 if the ceasefire holds, fall about one per cent if hostilities resume, and decline about three per cent under sustained disruption, remaining weak into 2027.

The report concludes that recovery is determined less by the crisis itself than by how quickly confidence, connectivity, and affordability can be restored. Furthermore, it finds that confidence now travels faster than people. In 2025, viral rumours of a megaquake drove booking declines of up to 50 per cent from some East Asian markets despite having no scientific basis, showing how misinformation can depress demand before any physical disruption.

Tourism is recovering faster, but systemic crises are the new test. Average recovery times fell from about 24 months in the early 2000s to 10 to 12 months today. However, increasingly complex, multi-country disruptions are beginning to slow this trend. The report also found that preparation is becoming a competitive advantage. Despite regional volatility, Saudi Arabia welcomed 37.2 million tourists in the first quarter of 2026, an eight per cent year-on-year increase, and reached its 100 million annual-visitor target seven years early, illustrating how diversification under Saudi Vision 2030 translates into measurable resilience.