Kuala lumpur: Airlines' total net profit in 2026 is forecasted to be significantly reduced to US$23 billion, nearly half of the previous estimation of US$41 billion, due to disruptions from the ongoing conflict in West Asia and surging fuel prices, as reported by the International Air Transport Association (IATA). According to BERNAMA News Agency, the regional impact varies considerably. Airlines operating in the West Asia region, at the epicenter of the conflict, are anticipated to report losses because of weak demand and operational challenges. In contrast, airlines in other regions are expected to remain profitable, albeit with diminished returns compared to earlier projections. IATA projects that the total industry revenue will climb to US$1.16 trillion in 2026, marking a 9.4 percent increase from US$1.065 trillion in 2025. The passenger load factor is anticipated to reach a record high of 84.0 percent, improving from 83.5 percent in the previous year. The number of passengers is expected to grow to 5.1 billion in 2026, a 2.4 percent increase from 2025, while cargo volumes are predicted to rise slightly to 71.7 million tonnes. Willie Walsh, IATA's director general, highlighted the operational uncertainty faced by Gulf carriers following the near-complete shutdown of airspace at the onset of the conflict. Despite their efforts to maintain connectivity, these airlines are unable to avoid substantial financial impacts. Walsh further noted that even under favorable conditions, the airline industry is plagued by low margins and returns that fall short of covering the cost of capital. The recent oil price surge has tested the financial resilience of airlines, narrowing global net margins to just two percent. Airlines are struggling with escalating fuel costs, with net profit per passenger expected to drop to US$4.50, a significant decrease from the previous year. While airfare increases help offset some costs, airlines are still absorbing a portion of the financial burden, leaving little room for additional exp enses or rising taxes. Fuel costs are projected to rise nearly 40 percent to US$350 billion in 2026 from US$252 billion in 2025, driven by an expected average crude oil price of US$95 per barrel, a 37 percent jump from US$69 in 2025. Jet fuel prices are expected to average US$152 per barrel, up almost 70 percent from US$90 in 2025. The crack spread, or the premium for jet fuel over Brent crude oil, is projected to reach an all-time high of $57 per barrel. IATA, which represents over 370 airlines accounting for approximately 85 percent of global air traffic, emphasized these challenges.