Kuala lumpur: CIMB Investment Bank Bhd anticipates that Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) will maintain the overnight policy rate (OPR) at 2.75 percent during the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for September 4, 2025.

According to BERNAMA News Agency, CIMB's Treasury and Markets Research report highlights that the growth outlook risks remain a primary factor influencing potential changes in BNM's monetary policy approach. Malaysia has successfully avoided a negative tariff scenario, achieving a reduction from 25 percent to 19 percent, aligning with regional counterparts. This development supports the gross domestic product (GDP) growth within BNM's revised forecast range of 4.0-4.8 percent for 2025, with CIMB projecting a growth of 4.3 percent.

The report further notes that the second quarter of 2025 saw a 4.4 percent growth year-on-year, which is likely the peak, with expectations of a slowdown in the third quarter of 2025. CIMB also pointed out that BNM has historically shown less influence from United States monetary policy, as evidenced by the OPR not mirroring the climb of the US Federal Funds Rate in 2022-2023. This suggests that the more dovish outlook from the US Federal Reserve is not enough on its own to prompt further rate cuts.

BNM is expected to focus on data dependence in the upcoming September MPC statement, which will include updates on forward guidance and growth assessments.